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Israel closes its airspace by September 30?52%▲40.0Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?100%▲86.1Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%▼20.5Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?51%▼21.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲8.0Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?86%▲13.5Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?49%▼8.0Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202698%▲29.1Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%▲8.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?65%▼2.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?83%▲1.5Fed rate hike in 2026?72%▲8.5Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?55%▼1.0Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?19%▼32.2🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?45%▲3.0Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?20%▼12.0
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?52%▲40.0Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?100%▲86.1Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%▼20.5Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?51%▼21.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲8.0Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?86%▲13.5Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?49%▼8.0Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 202698%▲29.1Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%▲8.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?65%▼2.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?83%▲1.5Fed rate hike in 2026?72%▲8.5Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?55%▼1.0Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?19%▼32.2🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?45%▲3.0Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?20%▼12.0

Directory

Every market, scored for trust

Browse the full universe of markets we track. Each card shows live odds, liquidity, and a trust score so you know which prices to believe.

Top open markets by 24h volume

MarketVenueYesOdds ReliabilityUpdated
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket0.4%Stable8m ago
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Polymarket14.5%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket0.1%Stable8m ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket48.5%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago

Polymarket · 24h volume · 104 live tracked markets

$21.6M

Volume traded per 10-min interval

105 markets

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

0.0 pts
97

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

8

Liquidity

99

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $5.4M · Liq $1.8M · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

14.5%

-3.0 pts
85

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

33

Liquidity

93

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $2M · Liq $997.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
97

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

95

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $2M · Liq $881.8K · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

48.5%

-8.0 pts
84

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

51

Liquidity

92

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $1.4M · Liq $679.4K · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
97

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

96

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $1.2M · Liq $2.1M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

50.5%

+8.0 pts
79

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

66

Liquidity

91

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $743.6K · Liq $654.7K · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.8%

+0.2 pts
95

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

93

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $580.8K · Liq $1.4M · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.1 pts
76

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread
Stale price

Inspect moveVol $575.6K · Liq $1.9M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

1.8%

+0.5 pts
89

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

12

Liquidity

89

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $421.4K · Liq $345.8K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved up 0.6 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

0.7%

+0.6 pts
87

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

16

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $262.6K · Liq $273.4K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechLikely noise

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?

Moved up 86.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

99.8%

+86.1 pts
29

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

82

Tight spread
Resolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $261.1K · Liq $40.1K · Ends Sep 4, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Moved up 8.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

71.5%

+8.5 pts
74

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

53

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $253.1K · Liq $148.1K · Ends Dec 8, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Moved up 40.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

52.0%

+40.0 pts
56

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

100

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $246.8K · Liq $69.9K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
94

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

91

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $243.8K · Liq $2.7M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Moved up 4.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

93.0%

+4.3 pts
79

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

39

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $219K · Liq $283.4K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

14.5%

0.0 pts
88

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

13

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $213.9K · Liq $713.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 2.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.6%

+2.1 pts
45

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

40

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $181K · Liq $17.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.7%

-0.1 pts
89

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

8

Liquidity

88

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $157.2K · Liq $498.1K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.1%

-0.3 pts
90

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $153.9K · Liq $321.8K · Ends Sep 29, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechConfirmed move

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Moved up 13.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

85.5%

+13.5 pts
57

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

74

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $134.6K · Liq $78.6K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechConfirmed move

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

13.2%

+1.5 pts
66

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

42

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $132.5K · Liq $31.7K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
92

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

89

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $130.5K · Liq $1.1M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Moved down 3.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

3.6%

-3.8 pts
78

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

40

Liquidity

86

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $130.5K · Liq $295.9K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

1.0%

-0.5 pts
75

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $130.5K · Liq $74.9K · Ends Sep 7, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
94

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

91

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $128.3K · Liq $2.1M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?

Moved down 20.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

69.0%

-20.5 pts
58

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

89

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $120.2K · Liq $55.9K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
93

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

90

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $117.3K · Liq $2.1M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
94

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

91

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $111.8K · Liq $2.3M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketAI / TechConfirmed move

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Moved down 2.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

56.1%

-2.3 pts
61

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

53

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $111K · Liq $65.6K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Iran leadership change by September 30?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.4%

-0.2 pts
70

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread
Stale price

Inspect moveVol $110.9K · Liq $119.5K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

82.5%

+1.5 pts
68

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

60

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $109.1K · Liq $37.7K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.3 pts
86

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

3

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $108.7K · Liq $278.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 5?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

100.0%

+0.1 pts
66

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $107.1K · Liq $121.4K · Ends Sep 5, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

17.5%

+1.0 pts
73

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $106.9K · Liq $153.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
93

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

90

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $98K · Liq $1.6M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

Little 24h change — what little moved looks like thin-market noise.

34.5%

0.0 pts
14

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

71

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $95.3K · Liq $14.6K · Ends Sep 4, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

19.5%

+2.0 pts
79

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

27

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $94.8K · Liq $138.3K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

55.5%

+1.0 pts
86

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

84

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $92K · Liq $307.8K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 4?

Moved down 7.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

0.4%

-7.1 pts
0

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

85

Liquidity

73

Thin marketPast deadlineMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $86.6K · Liq $1.3K · Ends Sep 4, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?

Moved down 21.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

50.5%

-21.0 pts
58

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

90

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $83.6K · Liq $37.8K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?

Moved up 1.7 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

100.0%

+1.7 pts
49

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

54

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $82.8K · Liq $19.1K · Ends Sep 15, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 0.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

4.5%

+0.8 pts
74

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

43

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $79.6K · Liq $120.6K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved down 1.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

41.0%

-1.4 pts
86

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

12

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $79.4K · Liq $237.5K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

60.0%

+2.5 pts
61

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

43

Liquidity

74

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $77K · Liq $37.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.1 pts
92

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

89

Deep liquidity

Inspect moveVol $75.5K · Liq $2.5M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 5?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

100.0%

0.0 pts
67

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $75.1K · Liq $131.6K · Ends Sep 5, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
87

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $73.5K · Liq $121.7K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

6.5%

0.0 pts
90

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $72.8K · Liq $573K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

8.8%

-1.5 pts
70

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

26

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $70.7K · Liq $66.2K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.1 pts
90

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

86

Deep liquidity

Inspect moveVol $68.5K · Liq $2.1M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

-0.1 pts
88

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $67.4K · Liq $151.5K · Ends Sep 14, 2026

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

54.5%

-1.0 pts
57

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

66

Liquidity

78

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $66.3K · Liq $56.1K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

7.5%

+1.0 pts
84

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

85

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $65K · Liq $634.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

13.0%

+1.5 pts
79

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

18

Liquidity

77

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $65K · Liq $121.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

49.5%

+8.0 pts
68

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

63

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $64.2K · Liq $124.1K · Ends Dec 8, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

26.5%

-1.0 pts
85

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $63.9K · Liq $440.8K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
90

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

86

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $63.6K · Liq $568.3K · Ends Sep 29, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

7.5%

0.0 pts
85

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

13

Liquidity

84

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $61.5K · Liq $393.9K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.1%

-0.1 pts
86

ProbCast Trust

High Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

82

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $61.3K · Liq $102.5K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

99.1%

+2.0 pts
53

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

31

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $58.2K · Liq $21.1K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.9%

+0.3 pts
64

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

4

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $49.9K · Liq $62.2K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?

Moved up 1.1 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

100.0%

+1.1 pts
43

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

43

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $49.8K · Liq $17.3K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Trump out as President by September 30?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.6%

-0.2 pts
57

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $49.5K · Liq $76.9K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.7%

+0.1 pts
70

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

86

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $48K · Liq $703.5K · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.5%

0.0 pts
55

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $47.4K · Liq $56.1K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
70

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

86

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $47.3K · Liq $945.9K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechDeveloping

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.4%

0.0 pts
57

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $45.5K · Liq $48.8K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Moved up 0.9 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

84.0%

+0.9 pts
62

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

10

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $42.5K · Liq $83.8K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.5%

0.0 pts
64

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $42.2K · Liq $99.3K · Ends Sep 14, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.1 pts
68

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

83

Thin market

Inspect moveVol $40.7K · Liq $1.3M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

8.5%

+1.5 pts
60

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

13

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $40.5K · Liq $44K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

8.5%

0.0 pts
58

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

16

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $40.4K · Liq $27.5K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

60.4%

0.0 pts
63

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $38.1K · Liq $204.6K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

-0.1 pts
70

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

86

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $37.6K · Liq $835.7K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Moved down 2.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

4.2%

-2.2 pts
56

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

35

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $36.5K · Liq $83.2K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.3%

0.0 pts
68

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $35.4K · Liq $1.3M · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

36.5%

+1.0 pts
54

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

31

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $35.1K · Liq $89.3K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

27.5%

-3.0 pts
58

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

23

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $33.1K · Liq $92.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?

Moved down 3.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

4.7%

-3.4 pts
56

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

31

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $31.8K · Liq $78.8K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Trump out as President before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

5.5%

0.0 pts
67

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

82

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $31.4K · Liq $364.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

68.5%

-2.0 pts
60

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

27

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $31.2K · Liq $467.5K · Ends Sep 29, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

72.5%

-1.5 pts
52

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

34

Liquidity

75

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $30.5K · Liq $63.6K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsLikely noise

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved down 2.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

6.4%

-2.3 pts
35

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

67

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $30.5K · Liq $95.4K · Ends Oct 3, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?

Moved down 2.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

14.0%

-2.2 pts
55

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

28

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $29.3K · Liq $34.3K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.8%

0.0 pts
70

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

86

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $26.7K · Liq $769.9K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

2.1%

+0.1 pts
66

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

81

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $26.3K · Liq $160.5K · Ends Apr 29, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.1%

+0.1 pts
64

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $25.9K · Liq $209.8K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

23.6%

0.0 pts
69

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

1

Liquidity

84

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $25.9K · Liq $441.8K · Ends Nov 6, 2028

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
68

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $25.5K · Liq $517.8K · Ends Apr 29, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsConfirmed move

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

11.0%

+0.5 pts
58

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

25

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $25.5K · Liq $438K · Ends Nov 2, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?

Moved up 2.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

32.5%

+2.5 pts
32

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

63

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $25.3K · Liq $10.7K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Moved up 7.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

78.5%

+7.5 pts
28

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

61

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin marketBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $24.1K · Liq $78.1K · Ends Sep 12, 2026

PolymarketCryptoDeveloping

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

17.5%

-1.0 pts
62

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $23.9K · Liq $72.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.0%

-0.1 pts
64

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

2

Liquidity

78

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $23.6K · Liq $159.7K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

10.5%

0.0 pts
64

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

77

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $23.1K · Liq $65.3K · Ends Sep 21, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

4.5%

-0.3 pts
65

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $22.8K · Liq $190.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

5.5%

+0.3 pts
55

ProbCast Trust

Watch Trust

Movement

36

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $22.5K · Liq $100.8K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketCryptoLikely noise

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?

Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

19.5%

-12.0 pts
31

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

74

Liquidity

76

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $22.3K · Liq $56.4K · Ends Oct 1, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
68

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $21.7K · Liq $624K · Ends Apr 29, 2027

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

88.5%

-1.0 pts
61

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

20

Liquidity

82

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $21.1K · Liq $704.5K · Ends Nov 2, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.1%

0.0 pts
69

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

84

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $21K · Liq $599.4K · Ends Apr 29, 2027

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

3.3%

+0.1 pts
66

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

6

Liquidity

83

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $20.9K · Liq $259K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedDeveloping

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

1.6%

+0.3 pts
63

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

9

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $20.9K · Liq $114.6K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

64.5%

-2.0 pts
20

ProbCast Trust

Low Trust

Movement

93

Liquidity

69

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $20.6K · Liq $19.4K · Ends Sep 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.

0.3%

0.0 pts
65

ProbCast Trust

Medium Trust

Movement

0

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $20.6K · Liq $88.5K · Ends Dec 30, 2026

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Polymarket
0.1%
Stable
8m ago
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?Kalshi46.5%Developing Move — Low reliability8m ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket50.5%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket0.8%Stable8m ago
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket0.1%Stable8m ago
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket1.8%Stable8m ago
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?Kalshi0.5%Stable8m ago
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?Kalshi52.5%Developing Move — Low reliability8m ago
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket0.7%Stable8m ago
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?Polymarket99.8%Likely Noise — Low reliability8m ago
Fed rate hike in 2026?Polymarket71.5%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Polymarket52.0%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Polymarket0.1%Stable8m ago
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Polymarket93.0%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket14.5%Stable8m ago
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Polymarket8.6%Developing Move — Medium reliability8m ago
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket1.7%Stable8m ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Polymarket2.1%Stable8m ago
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Polymarket85.5%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Polymarket13.2%Stable8m ago
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Polymarket0.1%Stable8m ago
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Polymarket3.6%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Polymarket1.0%Stable8m ago
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Polymarket0.1%Stable8m ago
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?Polymarket69.0%Reliable Move — High reliability8m ago
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Polymarket0.1%Stable8m ago
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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