Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Source: Polymarket price history
This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Final market price
- 100.0%
- Event deadline
- October 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- dadosabertos.tse.jus.br
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? The final Polymarket price was 100.0%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Market data as of
- October 25, 2026 at 11:22 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- November 1, 2026 at 4:59 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- October 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 6d ago
What this market actually measures
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolution source: dadosabertos.tse.jus.br