Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
101 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
226.4 mana
Total volume
368.4 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Arizona pass the Anti-Trans Prop 318 ballot measure in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 2:38 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 90.0% (up from 64.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 226.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 101 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
90.0%
+26 percentage points
over 24 hours64.0% → 90.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
62%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
4
Trades
12
over 51 days
Largest order
33.8 mana
169.6 mana traded across these 12 trades (last 51 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$169.6 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
On November 3, Arizona will vote on the Arizona Proposition 318, Require Schools and Athletic Associations to Restrict Use of Restrooms, Locker Rooms, and Other Private Spaces Based on Sex Measure Which would prohibit schools and athletic associations from authorizing a student, athlete, employee, or other individual from using a restroom, locker room, shower room, or other private space that is not designated for th…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
On November 3, Arizona will vote on the Arizona Proposition 318, Require Schools and Athletic Associations to Restrict Use of Restrooms, Locker Rooms, and Other Private Spaces Based on Sex Measure Which would prohibit schools and athletic associations from authorizing a student, athlete, employee, or other individual from using a restroom, locker room, shower room, or other private space that is not designated for their sex - with sex defined as the "biological status as male or female as recorded at birth on the individual's original birth certificate;"- and remove the provision allowing any student, including females, to participate in any interscholastic or intramural athletic team or sport designated for males Resolves yes if the measure passes on the ballot, not if it goes into effect.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 26.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (64.0% → 90.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 28, 2:47 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 20.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next502 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H+2.06H+20.024H+26.07D+26.0
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