As of Nov 4, 2026, 9:26 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 19.5% (up from 17.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $109.7K traded in the past 24 hours, $60.8K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.
Deep, easy-to-trade market; we can't yet see which accounts drove today's move.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$60.8K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$109.7K
Total volume
$1.4M
Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.
Whose opinion is this price?
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 4, 9:26 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±11 pts.
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.