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PolymarketPoliticsUpdated 4m ago

Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

Market probability
89.0%
−3.4 percentage points
over 24 hours92.5% → 89.0%
29 days until the event deadline
Deadline: October 25, 2026 at 5:45 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread. The probability moved another 3.2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Unsettled

The probability moved another 3.2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$36.1K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 3.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours (92.5% → 89.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 25, 2026 at 5:45 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 25, 5:45 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.

TrendingLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Trending

A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.

  • Directional drift sustained across 1h / 6h / 24h windows
  • Executed flow sell-heavy (69%)

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
25Low
Where the price path tends to go next445 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting89%
  • Stable consensus4%
  • Thin-liquidity spike3%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$27.2K

Liquidity

$48.3K

Total volume

$50.7K

Category
Politics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
2.1 pts
Best bid
88.0%
Best ask
90.1%
7-day range
89.0% – 92.5%
Resolves
Oct 25, 2026
Change (pts)1H-3.26H-3.424H-3.47D-3.4

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