PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noiseUpdated 9m ago

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?

As of Oct 16, 2026, 4:47 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 84.0% (up from 77.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $28.8K traded in the past 24 hours, $29.7K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 2.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
84.0%
+6.5 percentage points
over 24 hours77.5% → 84.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing

Thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyPolymarket

Source: Polymarket price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Unsettled

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

ThinTight spread

Order-book liquidity

$29.7K

Bid-ask spread

2.0 pts

24h volume

$28.8K

Total volume

$33.9K

It would take roughly $22.5K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.

Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
33%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

61

Trades

100

over 2 days

Largest order

$7.5K

$29.1K traded across these 100 trades (last 2 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$29.1K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 6.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (77.5% → 84.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The latest eligible start date passesOctober 24, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    After this date, no new qualifying period can begin under the rules.

  • Completion of the qualifying period defined in the rules

    Resolution follows once the defined period finishes without a disqualifying event.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 4:56 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Probability by deadline

The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.

Extending the deadline from Oct 24 to Oct 31 removes about 8.0 percentage points of implied probability.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 6.5 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
26Low
Where the price path tends to go next77 observed
  • Thin-liquidity spike71%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting13%
  • Illiquid / quiet7%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H-1.06H+6.524H+6.57D+6.5

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