PolymarketGeopoliticsDevelopingUpdated 15m ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?

As of Oct 16, 2026, 1:10 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 96.4% (up from 95.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $199.4K traded in the past 24 hours, $67.5K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.8 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.

Market probability
96.4%
+0.9 percentage points
over 24 hours95.5% → 96.4%
Resolving soon

Deep, easy-to-trade market, with broad trading across many accounts.

Price historyPolymarket

Source: Polymarket price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Strong

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

DeepTight spread

Order-book liquidity

$67.5K

Bid-ask spread

0.8 pts

24h volume

$199.4K

Total volume

$223.4K

The visible order book runs out before the price would rise 5 pts — little resting money above the current price.

Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

Broad participation
14%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

109

Trades

200

over 11h

Largest order

$13.9K

$141.7K traded across these 200 trades (last 11h).

Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.

Recent trade activity$141.7K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

What could move this market next?

  • The latest eligible start date passesOctober 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    After this date, no new qualifying period can begin under the rules.

  • Completion of the qualifying period defined in the rules

    Resolution follows once the defined period finishes without a disqualifying event.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 1:25 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Probability by deadline

The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.

Extending the deadline from Oct 21 to Oct 31 removes about 12.0 percentage points of implied probability.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±17 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Book runs out before absorbing a 5-pt move (fragile depth)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
22Low
Where the price path tends to go next212 observed
  • Stable consensus95%
  • Trend continuation2%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H+0.86H+0.924H+0.97D+0.9

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