PolymarketGeopoliticsDevelopingUpdated 9m ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?

As of Nov 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 52.5% (up from 40.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $115.3K traded in the past 24 hours, $81K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.

Market probability
52.5%
+12 percentage points
over 24 hours40.5% → 52.5%
Moving fast

Deep, easy-to-trade market; we can't yet see which accounts drove today's move.

Price historyPolymarket

Source: Polymarket price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Strong

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

DeepTight spread

Order-book liquidity

$81K

Bid-ask spread

1.0 pts

24h volume

$115.3K

Total volume

$192.1K

It would take roughly $31.2K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.

Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.

Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 12.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (40.5% → 52.5%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The latest eligible start date passesDecember 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    After this date, no new qualifying period can begin under the rules.

  • Completion of the qualifying period defined in the rules

    Resolution follows once the defined period finishes without a disqualifying event.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 4, 1:48 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Probability by deadline

The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.

Extending the deadline from Dec 15 to Dec 31 removes about 11.5 percentage points of implied probability.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±18 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 11.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
41Medium
Where the price path tends to go next58 observed
  • Trend continuation66%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting18%
  • Stable consensus8%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityStable

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H+0.56H+11.024H+12.07D+12.0

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