Iran leadership change by December 31?
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
StrongThe pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 19, 3:37 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
- By Sep 301.1%
- By Dec 31 (this market)14.5%
Extending the deadline from Sep 30 to Dec 31 adds about 13.3 percentage points of implied probability.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±7 pts.
What's happening
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
- Liquid, two-sided, and calm — price behaving as settled consensus
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Stable consensus94%
- Choppy / mean-reverting3%
- Trend continuation2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$54.5K
Liquidity
$287.7K
Total volume
$4.6M
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- Best bid
- 14.0%
- Best ask
- 15.0%
- 7-day range
- 14.5% – 14.5%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026