As of Oct 26, 2026, 4:38 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 7.5% (up from 5.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $1.6M traded in the past 24 hours, $742.3K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.
Deep, easy-to-trade market — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history · Kalshi price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread, participation across 79 accounts.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$742.3K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$1.6M
Total volume
$16.6M
It would take roughly $57.6K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
81
Trades
200
over 6h
Largest order
$11.9K
$43.8K traded across these 200 trades (last 6h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution source: federalreserve.gov
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 4:43 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±11 pts.
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Independent venues price this the same — a strong credibility signal.