Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?36%10.0Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?46%7.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?65%11.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 11?69%10.7Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?63%9.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?75%44.9Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?92%56.5Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?86%5.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?83%3.5Fed rate hike in 2026?79%5.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?27%9.0Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?52%6.1Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?17%2.0All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?24%2.9Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?4%2.9Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?23%8.2
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 4m ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?

Market probability
34.0%
3.9 percentage points
over 24 hours38.0%34.0%
20 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, an unusually wide spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, an unusually wide spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (3.9 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$13.2K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of September 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of September 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Resolution source: pythdata.app

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 3.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (38.0% 34.1%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

  • Confirmation at the resolution source (pythdata.app)

    The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 10, 7:56 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 3.9 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
  • Flow one-directional across 81 participants (broad, not a single order)

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next328 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting91%
  • Stable consensus3%
  • Trend continuation3%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$63.5K

Liquidity

$39.6K

Total volume

$206.6K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
5.4 pts
Best bid
31.3%
Best ask
36.7%
7-day range
29.3% – 38.0%
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026
Resolution
pythdata.app
Change (pts)1H+1.26H-3.924H-3.97D-3.9

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