Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?0%▼20.9Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?27%▼6.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?37%▲5.5Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?68%▼6.0Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?56%▼16.0Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?32%▼13.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 25?100%▲12.9US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?63%▲3.9Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?0%▼21.3Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?10%▼3.6Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?24%▼7.1Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?6%▼13.1Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 September 21-27?23%▲10.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?51%▼5.0US recession by end of 2026?13%▲0.0Iran leadership change by December 31?13%▼2.0
PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 4m ago

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Market probability
58.5%
+3.5 percentage points
over 24 hours55.0% → 58.5%
32 days until the event deadline
Deadline: October 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (3.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$37K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 3.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (55.0% → 58.5%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 27, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 25, 11:36 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
18Low
Where the price path tends to go next436 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting91%
  • Stable consensus4%
  • Thin-liquidity spike2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$33.1K

Liquidity

$67K

Total volume

$125.3K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
3.0 pts
Best bid
57.0%
Best ask
60.0%
7-day range
55.0% – 58.5%
Resolves
Oct 27, 2026
Change (pts)1H+1.06H+3.524H+3.57D+3.5

Related markets