As of Oct 20, 2026, 4:43 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 2.8% (down from 7.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $44.5K traded in the past 24 hours, $102K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 3.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$102K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$44.5K
Total volume
$48.4K
It would take roughly $3.6K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
35
Trades
88
over 27 days
Largest order
$2K
$3.8K traded across these 88 trades (last 27 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The probability fell 4.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (7.0% → 2.8%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 4:46 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.