As of Oct 20, 2026, 10:23 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 71.5% (up from 71.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $54.4K traded in the past 24 hours, $961.9 of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 5.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, an unusually wide spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$961.9
Bid-ask spread
5.0 pts
24h volume
$54.4K
Total volume
$58.5K
It would take roughly $76 of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
23
Trades
63
over 11 days
Largest order
$7.2K
$41.5K traded across these 63 trades (last 11 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 10:26 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.