As of Oct 19, 2026, 5:59 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 7.9% (down from 10.3% 24 hours earlier). It had $75.5K traded in the past 24 hours, $72.4K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.6 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.
Deep, easy-to-trade market — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2.3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$72.4K
Bid-ask spread
0.6 pts
24h volume
$75.5K
Total volume
$271.2K
It would take roughly $1.3K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
120
Trades
200
over 3h
Largest order
$923.9
$4.7K traded across these 200 trades (last 3h).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 6:05 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±18 pts.
A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.