Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
36 mana
Total volume
511.2 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
🇺🇸 Will Trump meet Kim Jong Un before end of 2026? 🇰🇵
As of Oct 13, 2026, 9:23 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 27.0% (up from 20.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 36 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
27.0%
+7 percentage points
over 24 hours20.0% → 27.0%
Big move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
62%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
2
Trades
4
over 34 days
Largest order
7.2 mana
18.4 mana traded across these 4 trades (last 34 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$18.4 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un meet in person at least once between market creation and 12:00 AM ET on January 1, 2027. The meeting must be a face-to-face interaction that is publicly confirmed by credible reporting (e.g., AP News, Reuters) or official statements from the United States, North Korea, or another directly involved government.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un meet in person at least once between market creation and 12:00 AM ET on January 1, 2027. The meeting must be a face-to-face interaction that is publicly confirmed by credible reporting (e.g., AP News, Reuters) or official statements from the United States, North Korea, or another directly involved government. This market resolves NO if no such in-person meeting occurs by the resolution date. Phone calls, letters, exchanged messages, video calls, or announced plans to meet do not count unless an in-person meeting actually takes place.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 7.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (20.0% → 27.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 9:34 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±32 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next760 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~5h
PredictabilityHigh irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-3.024H+7.07D+7.0
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