Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
352.9 mana
Total volume
0 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Trump livestream an execution?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 6:24 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 29.0% (up from 26.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 352.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
29.0%
+3 percentage points
over 24 hours26.0% → 29.0%
Resolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
46%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
9
Trades
14
over 10h
Largest order
100 mana
301.8 mana traded across these 14 trades (last 10h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$301.8 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 3.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (26.0% → 29.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 18, 2026 at 8:17 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 6:31 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 3.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 9 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
12Low
Where the price path tends to go next1009 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
352.9 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
0 mana
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 29.0%
- 7-day range
- 24.6% – 29.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 18, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H+3.024H+3.07D+3.0
Related markets
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
64%YESTrust 68
Polymarket$43.6K 24h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
91%YESTrust 93
Polymarket$231.5K 24h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
10%YESTrust 91
Polymarket$87K 24h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
28%YESTrust 86
Polymarket$113.8K 24h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
9%YESTrust 91
Polymarket$76.8K 24h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
13%YESTrust 63
Polymarket$57.4K 24h