Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$94.5K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$41.8K
Total volume
$106.8K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 27.5% (up from 27.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $41.8K traded in the past 24 hours, $94.5K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
27.5%
+0.5 percentage points
over 24 hours27.0% → 27.5%
Resolving soon
Thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (0.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
17%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
79
Trades
200
over 47h
Largest order
$3K
$17.7K traded across these 200 trades (last 47h).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$17.7K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amapá.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 2:34 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
26Low
Where the price path tends to go next1546 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting97%
- Stable consensus2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H+1.56H+0.524H+0.57D+0.5