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Home/Politics/Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
PolymarketPoliticsUpdated 1m ago

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Market probability
0.4%
Little changed over 24 hours
819 days until the event deadline
Deadline: November 6, 2028 at 7:00 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Strong

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$488.4 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 6, 2028 at 7:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 10, 10:39 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±6 pts.

Trading normallyLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Trading normally

Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.

Market data

24h volume

$55.3K

Liquidity

$1.3M

Total volume

$21.6M

Category
Politics
Venue
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D+0.1
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

90/ 100 · High

Well-supported — liquid, fresh, and steady. Treat this number as reliable.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement0

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity85
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
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  • Liquid, two-sided, and calm — price behaving as settled consensus

The latest price is a dependable read of consensus.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
68High
Where the price path tends to go next222 observed
  • Stable consensus93%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting3%
  • News repricing2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.2 pts
Best bid
0.3%
Best ask
0.5%
7-day range
0.4% – 0.4%
Resolves
Nov 6, 2028

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

90/100 · High

Well-supported — liquid, fresh, and steady. Treat this number as reliable.

  • Liquidity anchor+62
  • Price steadiness+30
Trust score90 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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