Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Confirmed repricing; the market is settling at the new level.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
StrongThe pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (0.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 22, 2026 at 2:20 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 22, 2:22 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±14 pts.
What's happening
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
- Liquid, two-sided, and calm — price behaving as settled consensus
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Stable consensus92%
- Choppy / mean-reverting5%
- Trend continuation2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$51.5K
Liquidity
$106.1K
Total volume
$244.6K
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 2.0 pts
- Best bid
- 44.0%
- Best ask
- 46.0%
- 7-day range
- 44.5% – 46.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 22, 2026