Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1.4K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
293 mana
Total volume
5.4K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Donald Trump visit China before January 1, 2027?
As of Nov 2, 2026, 6:53 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 86.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 293 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1.4K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
86.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
47%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
13
Trades
26
over 98 days
Largest order
1.5K mana
5.4K mana traded across these 26 trades (last 98 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$5.4K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump makes a subsequent visit to mainland China, Hong Kong, or Macau on or after July 27, 2026, and before January 1, 2027 (12:00 AM UTC). Because Donald Trump already completed a state visit to Beijing on May 13–15, 2026, his past trip does not satisfy the resolution criteria.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump makes a subsequent visit to mainland China, Hong Kong, or Macau on or after July 27, 2026, and before January 1, 2027 (12:00 AM UTC). Because Donald Trump already completed a state visit to Beijing on May 13–15, 2026, his past trip does not satisfy the resolution criteria. This market requires a new, separate visit during the specified timeframe. The market will resolve based on official statements from the White House or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, or consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg). A "visit" is defined as Trump physically landing and setting foot in the specified territory. Transits where he does not leave the airport or vessel do not qualify. Visits to Taiwan will not count toward a YES resolution. If no subsequent visit occurs before January 1, 2027, the market resolves to NO.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 2, 6:58 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
9Low
Where the price path tends to go next344 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~25h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+2.024H0.07D0.0
Related markets
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
27%YESTrust 29
Manifold9K mana 24h
Will the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
4%YESTrust 47
Manifold545 mana 24h
Will Donald Trump go to Maine before election day?
2%YESTrust 19
Manifold13.4K mana 24h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
2%YESTrust 92
Polymarket$209.9K 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
33%YESTrust 68
Polymarket$525.4K 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18%YESTrust 92
Polymarket$528.4K 24h