Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 6:12 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 10.5% (up from 8.0% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ82 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Codename: LEAP Resolves YES if a model released after this market opened and before January 1, 2028 first appears on Epoch’s general Capabilities Index (ECI) leaderboard at least 9 points above the previous record. “Previous record” means the highest displayed central general-ECI score belonging to an earlier-released model.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Codename: LEAP Resolves YES if a model released after this market opened and before January 1, 2028 first appears on Epoch’s general Capabilities Index (ECI) leaderboard at least 9 points above the previous record. “Previous record” means the highest displayed central general-ECI score belonging to an earlier-released model. Confidence bounds and domain-specific scores do not count. The score must be published by April 30, 2028. Ordinary later leaderboard recalculations do not undo a genuine first-published jump. Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 6:21 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 73% of recent flow
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet100%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ82
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ1.8K
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 10.5%
- 7-day range
- 8.0% – 10.5%
- Resolves
- Jan 1, 2028