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Today’s read — 8 real moves · 4 venue disagreements · 8 settlementsRead it

Top Movers

Every tracked market, ranked by how much it moved, with thin-market noise pushed down. How scores work →

447 markets · ranked by Meaningful Move Score · 24h changes

PolymarketCryptoConfirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

28.5%

+4.0 pts
64

Trust

Medium

Movement

75

Liquidity

80

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $82.7K · Liq $76.5K · Ends Nov 1, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

79.5%

+3.5 pts
77

Trust

Medium

Movement

63

Liquidity

87

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $649.1K · Liq $191.7K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedConfirmed move

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?

Moved down 11.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

36.0%

-11.5 pts
59

Trust

Mixed

Movement

79

Liquidity

75

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $58.5K · Liq $25.9K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketMacro / FedLikely noise

Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?

Moved up 39.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

70.3%

+39.3 pts
12

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

72

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $42.7K · Liq $7.1K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketOtherLikely noise

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?

Moved up 20.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

70.0%

+20.5 pts
11

Trust

Low

Movement

99

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $81.2K · Liq $6.5K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 2.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

8.1%

-2.2 pts
55

Trust

Mixed

Movement

73

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $65K · Liq $76.1K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketOtherLikely noise

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?

Moved down 19.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

29.3%

-19.0 pts
11

Trust

Low

Movement

99

Liquidity

73

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $47K · Liq $7.1K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

72.5%

+5.0 pts
67

Trust

Medium

Movement

66

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $89K · Liq $120.7K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

83.5%

-3.0 pts
63

Trust

Medium

Movement

69

Liquidity

77

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $79.8K · Liq $27.3K · Ends Oct 28, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsDeveloping

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

Moved down 7.5 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

24.5%

-7.5 pts
54

Trust

Mixed

Movement

72

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soonMoving fast

Inspect moveVol $64.6K · Liq $76K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

23.5%

+4.0 pts
60

Trust

Medium

Movement

73

Liquidity

74

Deep liquidity
Moving fast

Inspect moveVol $50.1K · Liq $52.1K · Ends Nov 30, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?

Moved up 5.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

92.1%

+5.6 pts
68

Trust

Medium

Movement

58

Liquidity

86

Deep liquidityTight spread
Resolving soon

Inspect moveVol $662.3K · Liq $71.5K · Ends Oct 22, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Moved up 4.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

50.8%

+4.8 pts
71

Trust

Medium

Movement

59

Liquidity

84

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $84.2K · Liq $143.6K · Ends Oct 27, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsLikely noise

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?

Moved down 6.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

60.0%

-6.5 pts
17

Trust

Low

Movement

91

Liquidity

74

Tight spread
Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $82.6K · Liq $23.9K · Ends Oct 29, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

9.5%

+2.0 pts
66

Trust

Medium

Movement

64

Liquidity

79

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $69.5K · Liq $47.8K · Ends Oct 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

46.0%

+2.0 pts
65

Trust

Medium

Movement

62

Liquidity

76

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $50.6K · Liq $43.2K · Ends Nov 30, 2026

PolymarketPoliticsLikely noise

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

46.5%

+7.0 pts
21

Trust

Low

Movement

80

Liquidity

79

Tight spread
Thin marketResolving soonMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol $46.3K · Liq $97.9K · Ends Oct 25, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

11.5%

+2.0 pts
45

Trust

Mixed

Movement

69

Liquidity

80

Tight spread
Thin market

Inspect moveVol $43.4K · Liq $152.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?

Moved down 13.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

25.7%

-13.3 pts
4

Trust

Low

Movement

100

Liquidity

60

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 650 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 31, 2027

PolymarketGeopoliticsDeveloping

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.4 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.

36.8%

+1.4 pts
73

Trust

Medium

Movement

50

Liquidity

83

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $170.4K · Liq $134.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026

PolymarketGeopoliticsConfirmed move

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Moved down 2.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

46.1%

-2.2 pts
77

Trust

Medium

Movement

45

Liquidity

86

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $60.7K · Liq $782.2K · Ends Apr 18, 2027

ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noise

"Avengers: Doomsday" breaks the record for the biggest opening weekend of all time?

Moved up 1.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

46.7%

+1.7 pts
16

Trust

Low

Movement

84

Liquidity

70

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 18.9K mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Dec 25, 2026

PolymarketAI / TechConfirmed move

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

16.5%

-2.0 pts
72

Trust

Medium

Movement

49

Liquidity

81

Deep liquidityTight spread

Inspect moveVol $97.6K · Liq $136.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2028

ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noise

Will Washington Initiative IL26-638 (girls' sports eligibility by sex) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

35.0%

-12.0 pts
13

Trust

Low

Movement

93

Liquidity

58

Thin marketMoving fastBig move, weak backing

Inspect moveVol 637.5 mana · Liq 1K mana · Ends Nov 4, 2026

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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