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Home/Geopolitics/Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?
KalshiGeopoliticsUpdated 4m ago

Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?

Market probability
18.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
1239 days until the event deadline
Deadline: January 1, 2030 at 10:00 AM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution source: If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2030 at 10:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 11, 8:46 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Market data

24h volume

$56.8

Liquidity

$0

Total volume

$127.7K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Kalshi
Open interest
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

24/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement0

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity

Insufficient data — this venue reports no volume or book depth for this market, so liquidity can't be measured (unknown, not necessarily poor).

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
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  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
12Low
Where the price path tends to go next628 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

$42.6K
Spread
2.0 pts
Best bid
17.0%
Best ask
19.0%
7-day range
18.0% – 18.0%
Resolves
Jan 1, 2030
Resolution
If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Trust breakdown

24/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+31
  • Price steadiness+30
  • Missing market data-15
  • Thin liquidity-20
Trust score24 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Kalshi

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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