As of Oct 22, 2026, 5:03 PM ET, Kalshi priced this market at 0.5% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $268.4 traded in the past 24 hours, $3.2M of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Thin market where small orders can move the price; the price has held steady over 24 hours.
Source: Kalshi price history · Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$3.2M
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$268.4
cash traded · $26.8K notional on Kalshi
Open interest
$1.4M
It would take roughly $40.3K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution source: If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves t…
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 22, 5:17 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±13 pts.
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Independent venues price this the same — a strong credibility signal.