As of Oct 26, 2026, 7:43 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 15.3% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 100 mana of pool liquidity.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — the venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market — though most recent trading came from one account.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
0 mana
Total volume
330.6 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
7
Trades
15
over 24h
Largest order
250 mana
328.3 mana traded across these 15 trades (last 24h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
related to Elon Musk's prediction that money will be obsolete by 2036 due to AI-driven abundance, but added 5 more years since Elon's predictions tend to be off by ~50% for timelines assume people still exist Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, as of January 1, 2042, having $10,000,000 USD (or the inflation-adjusted equivalent in 2026 purchasing power, or equivalent personal financial wealth if fi…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
related to Elon Musk's prediction that money will be obsolete by 2036 due to AI-driven abundance, but added 5 more years since Elon's predictions tend to be off by ~50% for timelines assume people still exist Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, as of January 1, 2042, having $10,000,000 USD (or the inflation-adjusted equivalent in 2026 purchasing power, or equivalent personal financial wealth if fiat currencies are obsolete) provides little to no material lifestyle advantage over having zero personal financial wealth. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. To resolve this question, the market creator will host a public poll on Manifold (or its successor platform) in January 2042 asking: "Does having $10M+ in personal wealth provide a material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?" YES resolution: If a simple majority (>50%) of voters agree that there is little or no material lifestyle advantage (e.g., due to post-scarcity, AI-driven universal abundance, or the total obsolescence of money). NO resolution: If a majority of voters agree that having $10M+ still provides a significant material lifestyle advantage (e.g., superior access to prime real estate, advanced healthcare, computing power, energy, or luxury goods/services). Fallback: If the platform is no longer operational or a poll cannot be reliably conducted, the creator will resolve the market in good faith based on the prevailing consensus of academic, economic, and mainstream journalistic coverage regarding global material post-scarcity in 2041. Background In a July 2026 interview with The Economist, Elon Musk predicted that money would become obsolete by 2036. He argued that artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics will usher in an era of "universal high income" and extreme physical abundance, making the traditional exchange of currency for goods and services redundant. Skeptics and economists counter that absolute resource scarcity (such as prime physical land, energy, raw materials, and computing infrastructure) will continue to exist, keeping wealth highly relevant. This market tests a delayed timeline five years past Musk's original 2036 prediction to see if AI-driven abundance will successfully decouple material lifestyle quality from personal financial wealth by 2041.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 10:42 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.