ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?100%▲31.8US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?30%▲17.0Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?77%▲20.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?17%▲7.0Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?44%▲12.3US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?45%▲6.5Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?48%▲1.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?54%▲22.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?24%▲4.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?17%▼16.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22?53%▲30.1Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?79%▲47.0Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?23%▼16.2Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?98%▲10.4Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?62%▲6.7Opus 5.2 released in September?2%▼12.8

Event · resolves around 2026-10-29

Fed — rate decision · Oct 2026

4 related contracts across Polymarket · $921.9K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket53%+2.0 pts79Confirmed move
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket1%0.0 pts90Developing
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket1%0.0 pts90Developing
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket0%-0.1 pts89Developing

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