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Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?37%▼9.0Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?36%▼4.4US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?25%▼14.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?29%▼13.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?3%▼7.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?27%▲7.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?79%▲7.0Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?52%▼13.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?11%▼10.0Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?49%▼10.4Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?67%▲2.0Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?83%▲3.0Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in August?20%▲5.5Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election by 5.00% or more?36%▼14.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?33%▼5.0Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)?50%▼5.4
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?37%▼9.0Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?36%▼4.4US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?25%▼14.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?29%▼13.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?3%▼7.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?27%▲7.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?79%▲7.0Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?52%▼13.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?11%▼10.0Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?49%▼10.4Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?67%▲2.0Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?83%▲3.0Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in August?20%▲5.5Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election by 5.00% or more?36%▼14.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?33%▼5.0Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)?50%▼5.4

Event · resolves around 2026-11-03

Democrats — election · Nov 2026

2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election by 5.00% or more?ManifoldPolitics36%-14.0 ptsṀ4K648Likely noise
Will Josh Shapiro get 60.00% or more of the vote in 2026 Pennsylvania Governor election?ManifoldPolitics40%-2.0 ptsṀ34389Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

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