ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?10%▼31.6Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?45%▼18.0Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?37%▼12.5US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?50%▼4.0Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?47%▼3.0US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?86%▼2.0US Average Gas Price Is $4.4800 or more on September 28 2026?48%▼22.6Will one AI lab pull ahead before 2028?36%▼16.2Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 September 21-27?4%▼6.0Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026?69%▲12.2Will the US and China announce an AI incident notification mechanism at the Trump–Xi summit?81%▲43.5Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?27%▲3.0Will manifold make perps on the profit of any trader on manifold before 2028?25%▼19.4Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?36%▲1.0US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on October 1 2026?18%▼16.3Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?6%▲0.0

Event · resolves around 2026-10-27

Republicans — election · Oct 2026

4 related contracts across Polymarket · $103.2K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Polymarket87%0.0 pts54Developing
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Polymarket42%-2.5 pts58Developing
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Polymarket61%-1.0 pts62Developing
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Polymarket30%+1.0 pts61Developing

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