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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?37%▼4.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?63%▲7.0 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?68%▲7.0 Will Abdul El Sayed and Francesca Hong both win their primaries?9%▼87.8 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?84%▲14.0 Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?68%▲19.8 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?48%▲6.0 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?37%▼7.5 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?62%▲5.4 Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?3%▼2.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?27%▲4.0 Fed rate hike in 2026?57%▼2.0 Will my this market post cross 5Ok Mana mark? (THIS ONE)99%▲86.3 Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?62%▼14.5 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?46%▼6.0 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?54%▲6.0

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?37%▼4.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?63%▲7.0 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 12?68%▲7.0 Will Abdul El Sayed and Francesca Hong both win their primaries?9%▼87.8 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?84%▲14.0 Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?68%▲19.8 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?48%▲6.0 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?37%▼7.5 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?62%▲5.4 Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?3%▼2.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?27%▲4.0 Fed rate hike in 2026?57%▼2.0 Will my this market post cross 5Ok Mana mark? (THIS ONE)99%▲86.3 Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?62%▼14.5 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?46%▼6.0 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?54%▲6.0

Event · resolves around 2026-11-04

Democrats — election · Nov 2026

2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?	Manifold	Politics	68%	+19.8 pts	Ṁ13.7K	72	20	Likely noise
Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?	Manifold	Politics	69%	+22.2 pts	Ṁ302.6	53	0	Likely noise

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.