Event · resolves around 2026-11-03
Day — election · Nov 2026
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will the US ban diesel exports before Election Day? | Manifold | 22% | -0.4 pts | 35 | Developing |
| Democrats win Maine and Ohio US Senate Election? | Manifold | 56% | -1.0 pts | 5 | Likely noise |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.