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Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?27%▲6.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?56%▲13.0Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?76%▲6.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?13%▼16.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?4%▼49.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?100%▲23.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?47%▼9.0US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?33%▼27.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 10?0%▼9.1US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?39%▼10.0Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?2%▼49.5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?38%▲2.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?61%▼2.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?62%▼4.5Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?52%▲10.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?33%▲8.0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?27%▲6.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?56%▲13.0Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?76%▲6.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?13%▼16.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?4%▼49.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?100%▲23.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?47%▼9.0US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?33%▼27.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 10?0%▼9.1US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?39%▼10.0Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?2%▼49.5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?38%▲2.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?61%▼2.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?62%▼4.5Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?52%▲10.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?33%▲8.0

Event · resolves around 2026-11-03

Abdul El-Sayed — election · Nov 2026

2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan?ManifoldPolitics61%+1.3 ptsṀ144123Developing
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan?ManifoldPolitics60%+0.6 ptsṀ1.53316Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

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