Event · resolves around 2026-11-02
House — election · Nov 2026
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will a Republican House or Senate Candidate say Donald Trump should run for a third term before Midterms Election Day? | Manifold | 51% | +2.3 pts | 31 | Developing |
| Will Hasan Piker go to Michigan before Election Day? | Manifold | 23% | -2.3 pts | 8 | Likely noise |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.