Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$56.3K
Bid-ask spread
0.1 pts
24h volume
$33.8K
Total volume
$87.4K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25?
As of Oct 23, 2026, 1:21 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 3.0% (down from 4.7% 24 hours earlier). It had $33.8K traded in the past 24 hours, $56.3K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.1 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
3.0%
−1.6 percentage points
over 24 hours4.7% → 3.0%
Big move, weak backingResolving soon
Thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (1.6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
25%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
64
Trades
200
over 38h
Largest order
$695.1
$5.3K traded across these 200 trades (last 38h).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$5.3K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" pri…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolution source: binance.com
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 26, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (binance.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 23, 1:24 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
23Low
Where the price path tends to go next1578 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H-1.76H-1.624H-1.67D-1.6
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