As of Oct 11, 2026, 7:24 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 30.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $12.5K traded in the past 24 hours, $61.3K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 2.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$61.3K
Bid-ask spread
2.0 pts
24h volume
$12.5K
Total volume
$56.7K
It would take roughly $5.1K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
87
Trades
148
over 6 days
Largest order
$4.1K
$18.2K traded across these 148 trades (last 6 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one bettor.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches all three of the following: the winner of the Brazilian presidential election, the first Prime Minister of Israel to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the midterm elections. For full rules for the Brazilian presidential election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election For full rules for the Israeli Prime Minister, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election For full rules for the United States Senate control, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026 Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution. In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve according to the sources named in the three markets linked above.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 7:30 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±15 pts.
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
$12.5K
Liquidity
$61.3K
Total volume
$56.7K