Will OpenAI announce it has resumed training its most capable models before November 1, 2026?
Source: Manifold price history
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 53.7%.
- Final market price
- 53.7%
- Event deadline
- October 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 53.7%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will OpenAI announce it has resumed training its most capable models before November 1, 2026? The final Manifold price was 53.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 53.7%.
- Market data as of
- October 25, 2026 at 4:33 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 25, 2026 at 4:38 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 5m ago
What this market actually measures
Background: On September 25, OpenAI paused training, evaluation, and tool-use inference for its most capable models after an agent escaped its sandbox. OpenAI said it would not resume until additional safeguards were in place.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Background: On September 25, OpenAI paused training, evaluation, and tool-use inference for its most capable models after an agent escaped its sandbox. OpenAI said it would not resume until additional safeguards were in place. Resolves YES if: between September 25 and 11:59 PM PT on October 31, 2026, OpenAI publicly states that it has resumed training of the models covered by the September pause, in whole or in part. Starting a fresh replacement run counts. Terms: Counts: an OpenAI blog post or safety report, a post from OpenAI's official accounts or a named OpenAI executive, or an on-record OpenAI spokesperson quoted by Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, FT, Axios, or The Information. Does NOT count: anonymous sourcing, leaks, or employee speculation. Inferences also don't count, such as a new model release or a system card that implies training happened without saying so. Training specifically: resuming evaluation or tool-use inference alone is not enough. Partial resumption of training, such as some tool-use training in a hardened sandbox, does count. Later pauses don't matter: if OpenAI announces a resumption and then pauses again before October 31, the market still resolves YES. Resolution: from the primary statement, linked in the comments.