Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

The probability is essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. No meaningful probability movement was detected over the past 24 hours.

• ·The market has not traded recently, so the current price may lag events.
• ·Trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
• ·The probability has barely moved over the past day.

Resolution

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374). Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality). Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below. The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table. Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80. Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems Closes earlier if the fundraise completes early — betting always closes before the analysis runs (with ~48h notice in comments).