Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 43.7%.
- Final market price
- 43.7%
- Event deadline
- August 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) The final Manifold price was 43.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 43.7%.
- Market data as of
- August 10, 2026 at 11:31 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 72d ago
What this market actually measures
Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374). Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374). Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality). Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below. The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table. Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80. Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems Closes earlier if the fundraise completes early — betting always closes before the analysis runs (with ~48h notice in comments).