ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 79d ago
Will EXACTLY 2 of the following people (@jatloe, @DottedCalculator, @121, @E142) bet on this market by resolve date?
Final price
48.9%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 48.9%.
- Final market price
- 48.9%
- Event deadline
- June 16, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will EXACTLY 2 of the following people (@jatloe, @DottedCalculator, @121, @E142) bet on this market by resolve date? The final Manifold price was 48.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 48.9%.
- Market data as of
- June 18, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:02 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 16, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 79d ago
What this market actually measures
pretty self-explanatory
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
pretty self-explanatory
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ1
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ49
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 48.9%
- Resolves
- Jun 16, 2026
Related markets
Daily Coinflip
51%YESTrust 37
ManifoldṀ1.9K 24h
ULTIMATUM GAME: two random traders negotiate this market's resolution
50%YESTrust 0
ManifoldṀ0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
4%YESTrust 43
Polymarket$50.6K 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
10%YESTrust 5
Polymarket$77K 24h
Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar?
19%YESTrust 37
ManifoldṀ1.8K 24h
Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $83 on September 10, 2026?
93%YESTrust 20
ManifoldṀ280 24h