Will the Dan Sullivan ‘impostor’ advance to the general election in the Alaska senate primary on August 18 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 46.3%.
- Final market price
- 46.3%
- Event deadline
- August 18, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the Dan Sullivan ‘impostor’ advance to the general election in the Alaska senate primary on August 18 2026? The final Manifold price was 46.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 46.3%.
- Market data as of
- August 21, 2026 at 8:11 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 18, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 60d ago
What this market actually measures
A nonpartisan primary election will be held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted under ranked-choice voting. Resolves yes if he (Daniel J.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
A nonpartisan primary election will be held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted under ranked-choice voting. Resolves yes if he (Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (Republican)[a], former U.S. Forest Service employee[9][3] (no relation to the incumbent)) advances based on votes recieved in the primary. Any legal challenge based on his name does not affect the outcome. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska