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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 66d ago

Will May 2026 U.S. building permits be at least 1.45 million (SAAR)?

Final price
41.7%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 41.7%.

Final market price
41.7%
Event deadline
June 16, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will May 2026 U.S. building permits be at least 1.45 million (SAAR)? The final Manifold price was 41.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 41.7%.

Market data as of
July 1, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:02 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 16, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
66d ago

What this market actually measures

This market resolves YES if the initial Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for May 2026 reports total privately-owned U.S. housing units authorized by building permits at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,450,000 or higher.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market resolves YES if the initial Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for May 2026 reports total privately-owned U.S. housing units authorized by building permits at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,450,000 or higher. Use the total United States building-permits SAAR value in the initial May 2026 New Residential Construction release. Resolve NO if that value is 1,449,000 or lower. Do not use housing starts, housing completions, new residential sales, single-family-only permits, multifamily-only permits, regional permits, not seasonally adjusted counts, year-over-year changes, or later annual revisions unless Census/HUD corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 New Residential Construction release is delayed, wait for the first Census/HUD release containing the May 2026 total building-permits SAAR value unless there is no such release by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2025_total_building_permits_saar": 1445000, "april_2026_housing_completions_saar": 1449000, "april_2026_housing_starts_saar": 1465000, "april_2026_mom_percent": 5.8, "april_2026_total_building_permits_saar": 1442000, "april_2026_yoy_percent": -0.2, "march_2026_revised_total_building_permits_saar": 1363000, "release": "Monthly New Residential Construction, April 2026"}, "metric": "Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits, total United States, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "related_non_duplicates": ["Housing-starts markets are not duplicates.", "Housing-completions markets are not duplicates.", "New-residential-sales markets are not duplicates.", "Single-family-only, multifamily-only, regional, unadjusted-count, or year-over-year permit markets are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "The Census economic-indicators calendar lists New Residential Construction for May 2026 at 8:30 AM on June 16, 2026.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for May 2026", "threshold_units": "1,450,000 authorized housing units at SAAR"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census economic indicators calendar: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - Census construction release schedule: https://www.census.gov/construction/soc/schedule.html - April 2026 New Residential Construction PDF: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst_202604.pdf - Census current New Residential Construction page: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ1

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ16.1

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
41.7%
Resolves
Jun 16, 2026

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