Will U.S. interstate-trade hub centrality survive COVID? (H1-P, 2017→2022)
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 39.9%.
- Final market price
- 39.9%
- Event deadline
- August 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will U.S. interstate-trade hub centrality survive COVID? (H1-P, 2017→2022) The final Manifold price was 39.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 39.9%.
- Market data as of
- August 10, 2026 at 11:31 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:42 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 72d ago
What this market actually measures
Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374). Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374). Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality). Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below. The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table. Resolves YES iff Spearman ρ ≥ 0.90 for eigenvector AND out-degree centrality, ρ < 0.85 for betweenness, AND ≥ 8 of the top-10 eigenvector states shared. (Compound = the registered "HOLD" criterion; betweenness reshuffling is part of the forecast.) Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems Closes earlier if the fundraise completes early — betting always closes before the analysis runs (with ~48h notice in comments).