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The probability decreased by 9.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast reads this as thin-market noise rather than a genuine repricing.
Will U.S. interstate-trade hub centrality survive COVID? (H1-P, 2017→2022) The current Manifold probability is 40.4%, down 9.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as a Likely Noise with low confidence because trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374). Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality). Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below. The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table. Resolves YES iff Spearman ρ ≥ 0.90 for eigenvector AND out-degree centrality, ρ < 0.85 for betweenness, AND ≥ 8 of the top-10 eigenvector states shared. (Compound = the registered "HOLD" criterion; betweenness reshuffling is part of the forecast.) Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems Closes earlier if the fundraise completes early — betting always closes before the analysis runs (with ~48h notice in comments).
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketEXPIRING_SOONResolving soonFAST_MOVEMoving fastLOW_TRUST_MOVEBig move, weak backingDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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