Will Openai Release a new Luna Model alongside the next Frontier Model
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 9.4%.
- Final market price
- 9.4%
- Event deadline
- September 4, 2026 at 6:13 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Openai Release a new Luna Model alongside the next Frontier Model The final Manifold price was 9.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 9.4%.
- Market data as of
- September 7, 2026 at 7:26 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 19, 2026 at 7:14 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 4, 2026 at 6:13 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 42d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if OpenAI officially announces a new model under the "Luna" tier (e.g., "GPT-6 Luna", "GPT 5.7 Luna", or a similar designation) concurrently with the initial public announcement of their next major frontier model family (e.g., "GPT-6", "GPT-5.7", or the next generational successor to the GPT-5.6 family). This Market resolves no If no Luna Model is released alongside Ope…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if OpenAI officially announces a new model under the "Luna" tier (e.g., "GPT-6 Luna", "GPT 5.7 Luna", or a similar designation) concurrently with the initial public announcement of their next major frontier model family (e.g., "GPT-6", "GPT-5.7", or the next generational successor to the GPT-5.6 family). This Market resolves no If no Luna Model is released alongside Openai next Frontier Model This Market resolves N/A If Openai releases No new Frontier Model before 2028