Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Final market price
- 1.0%
- Event deadline
- January 1, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 1.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 1.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026? The final Manifold price was 1.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Market data as of
- July 2, 2026 at 8:55 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- January 1, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 111d ago
What this market actually measures
Any "Mythos-class" model will count. Anthropic API Customers or Subscription; with or without KYC.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Any "Mythos-class" model will count. Anthropic API Customers or Subscription; with or without KYC. Day threshold will be midnight AOE. Update 2026-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market resolves YES if Claude Fable 5 (or any Mythos-class model) is re-enabled for some significant proportion of non-Americans — but access limited to only Anthropic employees does not count (or a program similar to Glasswing). Update 2026-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Non-American is defined as a non-US foreign national based outside of the US.