Will the June 2026 U.S. labor force participation rate be at least 62.0%?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 46.6%.
- Final market price
- 46.6%
- Event deadline
- July 2, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the June 2026 U.S. labor force participation rate be at least 62.0%? The final Manifold price was 46.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 46.6%.
- Market data as of
- July 4, 2026 at 3:18 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 2, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 109d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for June 2026 reports a civilian labor force participation rate of at least 62.0 percent, seasonally adjusted. Use the household-survey civilian labor force participation rate for June 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for June 2026 reports a civilian labor force participation rate of at least 62.0 percent, seasonally adjusted. Use the household-survey civilian labor force participation rate for June 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release. A value of 62.0% or higher resolves YES. A value of 61.9% or lower resolves NO. Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, the U-3 unemployment rate, U-6, employment-population ratio, metro-area or state participation rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial June 2026 release before resolution. If the June 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the June 2026 labor force participation rate unless there is no such release by July 9, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"may_2026_labor_force_participation_rate": 61.8, "may_2026_total_nonfarm_payroll_change": 172000, "may_2026_unemployment_rate": 4.3, "release": "The Employment Situation, May 2026", "release_date": "2026-06-05"}, "metric": "Civilian labor force participation rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["June 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change and U-3 unemployment-rate markets are not duplicates.", "Metro-area, state, demographic, employment-population-ratio, U-6, and forecast-consensus markets are not duplicates.", "Prior-month labor-market threshold markets are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BLS July 2026 schedule lists Employment Situation for June 2026 on 2026-07-02 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for June 2026", "source_fetch_caveat": "Official BLS pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation; BLS pages can return HTTP 403 to raw Python urllib from this host.", "threshold": "62.0 percent or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS July 2026 selected release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/07_sched_list.htm - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS May 2026 Employment Situation archive: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_06052026.htm - BLS CPS latest numbers: https://www.bls.gov/cps/latest-numbers.htm