ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDevelopingUpdated 12m ago

Will control of the House and Senate be called by midnight (PT) on election night in the 2026 US Midterms?

As of Oct 16, 2026, 3:52 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 43.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 76.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability

43.0%

Little changed over 24 hours

Ends Nov 4, 2026 · 18 days

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

76.4 mana

Total volume

385.5 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts

34%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

Trades

over 114 days

Largest order

100 mana

372.5 mana traded across these 12 trades (last 114 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$372.5 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve yes if a major publication/news network (defined as NYTimes, Fox News, CNN, or Decision Desk HQ, for simplicity) has called which party will control both the House of Representatives and Senate (doesn't have to be the same network) by midnight Pacific Time on election night.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

What could move this market next?

The market's deadline arrivesNovember 4, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 4:03 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence

Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability

Reliability score

13Low

Where the price path tends to go next432 observed

Illiquid / quiet98%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w

PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0