Has my ex blocked me?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 41.5%.
- Final market price
- 41.5%
- Event deadline
- August 19, 2026 at 9:52 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Has my ex blocked me? The final Manifold price was 41.5%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 41.5%.
- Market data as of
- August 22, 2026 at 9:29 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 3, 2026 at 5:37 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 19, 2026 at 9:52 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 41d ago
What this market actually measures
As of market creation, I've messaged my ex at about 8 PM today and they haven't responded or read the message yet. My ex is usually awake at this time, and they have read receipts turned on as of last week.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
As of market creation, I've messaged my ex at about 8 PM today and they haven't responded or read the message yet. My ex is usually awake at this time, and they have read receipts turned on as of last week. My ex usually responds to texts within a few minutes. If the message is not marked as "Read" and I haven't received a text, call, or voicemail from my ex at the end of August, I'll assume I'm blocked and resolve YES. (Since if they've blocked me, I will never know for sure). During our last text exchange a week ago, my ex told me they are not interested in me romantically and won't be dating me again, but would be happy to be friends.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ1.2K
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 41.5%
- Resolves
- Aug 19, 2026