Daily Coinflip
As of Oct 4, 2026, 2:00 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 50.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ2.5K traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ10K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
! Block #DailyCoinflip to stop seeing these !
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
! Block #DailyCoinflip to stop seeing these ! Yes = heads No = tails (Day 556) Current totals: 284 heads vs 272 tails Longest streaks: 10 heads (days 12-22); 9 tails (days 479-488) Yesterday’s flip: Heads @FairlyRandom will be used to generate the outcome 1 = heads 2 = tails Resolution can be expected within 24 hours after closing Noteworthy Gamblers: Longest win streak: @Skyguy (of 7) Longest loss streak: @QuestionableQuentin (of 11) Biggest win: @evan (of Ṁ109,593 profit on day 329) Biggest loss: @JannesH (of -Ṁ63,765 on day 367) Most flips: [Submit a comment or DM to be featured] Contingencies: Should @FairlyRandom fail to produce a response 24 hours after the close date, and after additional @FairlyRandom roll requests (one over here > one on the testing market), I will manually resolve it according to a Google coinflip (outcome is final). Should I fail to generate and/or resolve the outcome within a week after the market’s close, a mod may do so instead.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 4, 2:04 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
What's happening
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
- Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting88%
- Stable consensus5%
- Illiquid / quiet3%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ2.5K
Liquidity
Ṁ10K
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 50.0%
- 7-day range
- 50.0% – 50.2%
- Resolves
- Oct 4, 2026