Will Grok 4.6 be released by August 15th
Final price
99.7%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Price historyManifold
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Resolved YES
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.7%.
- Final market price
- 99.7%
- Event deadline
- August 12, 2026 at 12:09 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Grok 4.6 be released by August 15th The final Manifold price was 99.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.7%.
- Market data as of
- August 15, 2026 at 11:49 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 12, 2026 at 12:09 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 67d ago
What this market actually measures
End of day, August 15th Has to be a general, public release (same criteria as the August AI model release market)
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
End of day, August 15th Has to be a general, public release (same criteria as the August AI model release market)
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