Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in July 2026, according to Ukraine?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 88.9%.
- Final market price
- 88.9%
- Event deadline
- August 2, 2026 at 11:57 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in July 2026, according to Ukraine? The final Manifold price was 88.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 88.9%.
- Market data as of
- August 5, 2026 at 11:49 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 2, 2026 at 11:57 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 77d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve YES if, according to DeepStateUA, Russia achieves a net territorial gain in July 2026. This market will resolve NO if, according to DeepStateUA, Russia does not achieve a net territorial gain in July 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve YES if, according to DeepStateUA, Russia achieves a net territorial gain in July 2026. This market will resolve NO if, according to DeepStateUA, Russia does not achieve a net territorial gain in July 2026. Clarifications I may trade in this market. For related markets, see my Russia-Ukraine dashboard.