Will anyone correctly guess the total number of traders on this market? (50 mana bonus)
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves to YES iff anyone who trades on it (bots not included) correctly guesses the total number of traders (after the market has closed) in a comment under this market. I will only consider a trader’s first guess as valid, i.e.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves to YES iff anyone who trades on it (bots not included) correctly guesses the total number of traders (after the market has closed) in a comment under this market. I will only consider a trader’s first guess as valid, i.e. it’s not possible for a trader to guess multiple numbers. If such a trader exists, I will pay them out a 50 mana bonus for their correct guess (in the case of multiple comments with the same guess, I will pay out the bonus to the first such comment; only people who have traded on this market are eligible for this tiebreaker). I won’t bet on this market to avoid changing the total by +1 at any point.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 6.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 44.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 14, 2026 at 12:01 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 14, 9:29 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 88% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (2 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ15.6
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ15.6
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 44.0%
- 7-day range
- 44.0% – 50.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 14, 2026