Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 13.4%.
- Final market price
- 13.4%
- Event deadline
- July 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 13.4%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 13.4%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will SPY close down on the day of the SpaceX IPO? The final Manifold price was 13.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 13.4%.
- Market data as of
- June 15, 2026 at 1:58 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 128d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closes in the red (negative net change compared to the previous trading day's close) on the first day SpaceX common stock begins public trading on a major US stock exchange. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closes in the red (negative net change compared to the previous trading day's close) on the first day SpaceX common stock begins public trading on a major US stock exchange. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. First day of trading: Defined as the day SpaceX common stock (expected ticker SPCX) officially begins trading publicly. This is currently scheduled for Friday, June 12, 2026, but the actual date may shift. "Closes down": The closing price of SPY is lower than its closing price from the preceding trading day. Source of truth: Yahoo Finance SPY historical data will be used. If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, Google Finance SPY will be used as a fallback. Precondition: If the SpaceX IPO does not occur on or before June 12, 2026, this market will resolve to N/A. Background SpaceX publicly released its S-1 prospectus on May 20, 2026, targeting a $1.75 to $2 trillion valuation by offering shares at a fixed $135 apiece. The roadshow commenced in early June, with final pricing expected on June 11 and first trading scheduled on the Nasdaq (symbol: SPCX) for Friday, June 12, 2026. This offering represents the largest stock market debut in history, opening direct public access to SpaceX's rocket, satellite (Starlink), and AI.